Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
