Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
